How is the savings income if Selic returns 9.25% per annum? Understand what the changes are and see the simulation

The rapid rise in the benchmark interest rate over the course of this year promises to bring some relief to old savings. The Selic, which started 2021 at 2% annually, is now at 7.75% – and the expectation is that today’s meeting MPC (COBOM) From the central bank 9.25% per annum. If this really happens, after about four years, the rate will again exceed the level of 8.5% per year, which will change everything in the ledger.

The reason is simple: Since 2012, savings have had two forms of pay. The validity of one or the other is directly related to the base interest rate. When the Selic rate is less than 8.5% per annum, as it has since 2017 to date, the passbook yield is equal to 70% of the rate plus the reference rate variance (TR).

Read also: How does saving work?

When Selic exceeds the 8.5% level, the return becomes 0.5% per month plus TR – or 6.17% per year plus TR. Although there is little improvement in the short term, at the same time, the savings book pay is limited to this level, which is a negative level, especially in the interest-increasing cycle.

Remember that this is only valid for deposits made from May 4, 2012, when the new rules came into effect. Deposits made in savings on dates prior to this date continue to receive income as before, regardless of the Selic level: 0.5% per month plus TR.

Just as a comparison, with Selic at the current rate of 7.75% per annum, the savings yield is 5.43% per annum. That’s because the benchmark rate has been zero since September 2017, when Selic went from 9.25% per year to 8.25% per year.

simulation back

With the expected rise in interest rates, savings income should become more attractive. However, the app still gets heavily penalized when compared to other investment options with similar characteristics.

This is the case, for example, from Certificates of Bank Deposit (CDBs) that offer a yield of at least 100% of the CDI, government bonds such as Treasury Selic (LFT) and DI . money Administration fees are close to zero. Usually such products, in addition to the ledger, have daily liquidity.

Simulation made by Professors Ricardo Rocha and Marcelo Ermel, of Inspire, at the request of Infomoney, shows that of these four alternatives, the best return is Selek’s Treasure (a security also called a Treasury Bill of Finance, or LFT), if the value of the slick has already reached 9.25% per annum.

Consider the account an investment of R$1,000 within one year. An income tax rate of 17.5% on investment income was also taken into account – lower on exempt savings. In addition, the calculation was made on a constant flat basis at 9.25% during the period and TR 0.0623% per month (equivalent to the TR recorded in July 2017, when the base rate was at the same level).

Custody fee charged by direct treasureInventories of up to R$10,000 held in the program are expected to be exempted.

(1) The calculation takes into account an income tax rate of 17.5% on total income
(2) Income is exempt from income tax
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(4) It is considered an administration fee of 0.10%

drain savings

High interest rates and investor migration to fixed income securities that offer attractive returns have hampered savings deposits. According to the central bank, withdrawals again exceeded orders in the ledger for the fourth consecutive month in November. Altogether, the volume of withdrawals reached 12.4 billion R$ last month.

This was also the third time in a row that the record-breaking recoveries in a given month in the historical series, which began in 1995. The outflow volumes in September (7.719 billion R$) and October (7.430 billion R$) were also unprecedented. for the months concerned.

Radar changes?

With the return on savings lower than that offered by other financial investments, financial and curious agents discuss ways to try to improve brochure profitability. The agenda is already being studied by the Central Bank itself.

During his participation in an event at the end of November, Roberto Campos Neto, President of the Monetary Authority, said that autonomy is studying the issue of savings. However, he stressed that changes to the ledger should be done with caution so as not to cause disturbances.

“Savings that are more in line with the resource allocation will be important,” Campos Neto noted, noting that changes in savings should be made through public consultation, listening to all concerned and interested.

One concern relates to the effect an increase in the base rate could have in terms of financing. “With Selic at 2%, we were worried about the high rates of migration to savings. With the rise in the interest rate, we were concerned about the influx of money from savings,” Campos Neto emphasized at the time.

When asked before Infomoney On the progress of studies on saving, the Central Bank preferred not to take a stand.

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