What to watch this week

Last week, all eyes turned to interest rates – here or in the United States (US). Abroad, the Jackson Hole Symposium provided guidance on the path of rates in the US and was cut by 0.25 percentage points in September. According to Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, “the time has come” to cut interest rates in the United States. Here, some speeches from members of the central bank’s Monetary Policy Committee (COBOM) set the tone and warranted further signs of a possible hike. On Saturday, Roberto Campos Neto, president of the Brazilian BC, said at the event that it would be very difficult to discuss transfers without addressing financial issues. In Brazil, 50 million people “earn money from the government, 43 million people are employees and entrepreneurs,” he added.

On this week’s domestic agenda, central government revenue came in at R$231 billion, an increase expected by analysts. Actual down payment is 9.55%. This week, the focus will be on the Broad Consumer Price Index 15 (IPCA-15) and labor market data, as reported by the General Register of Employed and Unemployed Persons (CAGED) and the National Household Sample Survey (PNAD). Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE). Itaú’s economic team plans to increase 235 thousand formal jobs.

On Monday, eyes turn to the FOCUS report. With uncertainty about the interest rate path here, investors are closely following the bulletin, which will bring market forecasts for the rate, exchange rate, GDP and other economic data. The following day, IPCA-15 will be delivered and the LSEG consensus should bring an increase of 0.20% on a monthly basis, an annualized rate of 4.4%.

“Despite the lower value of the overall index, the decrease in car insurance, compared to 4.4% in July, will show an acceleration in basic services to 5.2% in the annual quarterly moving average (3mm saar). A strong increase in July”, maintains the economic team of Itaú.

On Wednesday, the Treasury issues its monthly public debt report.

Throughout the week, the Central Bank (BC) will issue a series of press releases, updating the market on Inward Direct Investment (IDP), current transactions, monetary policy and credit activities and fiscal policy. Finally, on Friday, the IBGE presents the continuous PNAD, which should bring the lowest unemployment data at 6.9%.

In addition to the indicator agenda, other events should move the market this week. The BR-381 auction in Minas Gerais will be held on Thursday, the 29th. Analysts see potential value for CCR ( CCRO3 ) and Ecorodovias ( ECOR3 ) but still see downside given the risks inherent to the projects.

The following day, the 30th, Ibovespa will have its third and final preview of the year. The new portfolio should take effect on 9/2, and analysts speculate that Caixa Seguridade (CXSE3), Auren (AURE3) and Santos Brasil (STBP3) could be included in the review. Among other projected names, there are those who consider Dexco (DXCO3) to be the most likely exception.

In the political climate, the government faces a deadline to send the 2025 budget to Congress, which ends next Saturday, August 31. The executive is expected to present a document by the deadline outlining its projections and funding priorities for the coming year. The market is awaiting details of the plan to increase the rates of Social Contribution on Net Profit (CSLL) and Income Tax on Interest on Equity (JCP). These measures, expected by Finance Minister Fernando Haddad, should be included in the budget.

In the US the highlights are Nvidia, GTB and PCE

After a week with interest rates and politics dominating the Democratic convention, the next few days will once again be full of indicators for the US. Highlights will be released on Thursday, the day GDP for the 2nd quarter will be released, and inflation data will be released on Friday.

Figures for personal spending, personal income and, most importantly, the PCE deflator should bring little variation in the monthly comparison. The LSEG consensus estimate is a monthly increase of 0.05% for monthly expenses and 0.02% for personal income. The LSEG consensus estimates annual GDP to be 2.80%.

Before that, Nvidia’s decisions should move the market. On Friday, the company’s shares helped bring the S&P 500 near a record set in July.

Check out the agenda for the week: