Direct Treasury: Bearish commodities raise interest rates offered by fixed rate securities to 11.65%

Thursday’s session (31) is characterized by the mixed movement of public securities prices negotiated in the direct treasury. Fixed rate bonds continue to show lower yields, while interest rates offered by inflation-linked bonds are stabilizing.

Investors await an introduction on the possible withdrawal of João Doria (PSDB), the current governor of São Paulo, from his candidacy for the presidency. The politician is expected to comment this afternoon on the issue.

Earlier, PSDB National Chair Bruno Araujo issued an official letter reconfirming that the party’s primary candidate for the presidential race is Doria.

Attention should also be paid to oil prices, which are witnessing a sharp decline in this session, after the United States announced today that the country will release one million barrels of oil per day (bpd) from national reserves, on average, for a period of six months. ..

This expressive correction in the price of the commodity in the international market is what helps explain the decline in the interest curve, according to Flavio Serrano, chief economist at Greenbay Investimentos.

With no major news on the domestic radar, Serrano also highlights that the market is waiting for more inflation data to reset expectations.

At Treasury Direct, at 3:30 p.m., interest from the fixed-rate Treasury 2029 fell to 11.53%, down from 11.60% in the previous session. With that said, the percentage is slightly higher than the 11.51% seen earlier in the day. Meanwhile, the paper due in 2033 yielded an interest rate of 11.65%, down from the 11.73% seen on Wednesday (30).

Among the inflation-related papers, the situation was different: real interest rates run close to stabilization. The highlight was Treasury IPCA+ 2055, with a semi-annual coupon, which provided a real return of 5.60% per annum, compared to the 5.59% recorded the day before.

Check the quotes and prices of all public securities available for purchase from direct treasury shown on Thursday afternoon (31):

Source: Direct Treasure

Oil crash and the United States

One of the main drivers of lower interest rates today comes from lower oil prices. The reason is that the United States will do it 1 million barrels of oil per day (bpd) of national reserves, on average, for six months.

The White House confirmed the move as part of the government’s efforts to contain rising energy prices in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Also pay attention to the US Core Consumer Expenditure (PCE) price index, which rose 0.4% in February month-on-month, according to data released Thursday (31) by the Commerce Department. In the annual comparison, the base increase was 5.4%.

The Refinitiv consensus was up 0.4% for core inflation month-on-month and 5.5% year over year. The index is one of the main references for determining Fed policies.

Dispute in PSDB and Moro

At the local political level, financial agents are waiting for a press conference called this afternoon, in which he will be Joao Doria He must take a position on the possibility of withdrawing from the candidacy for the presidency.

This morning, several cars announced that the then primary candidate had given up running in the race and would not leave the post of Governor of São Paulo anymore.

After major repercussions, Doria told writer Monica Bergamo, from Folha DS PauloThe news was “just speculation”. “I run a lot here. But I didn’t go, I didn’t come back. You know. Just speculation.”

in sequence, Bruno Araujo, PSDB . National Presidenta letter in which he reaffirmed that the party’s pre-candidate for the presidency is the governor of São Paulo, João Doria, who was “democratically chosen in the national elections held in November 2021”.

“The party will respect the primaries,” Araujo said. “The ruler has a myth of running for the presidency. There is and will not be any challenge to the legitimacy of his candidacy by the party.”

Also on the political arena, the former Lava Jato Judge and former Minister of Justice Sergio Moro Go Leaving Podemos to join União Brasil. The information was posted by the site capital Cities. According to the publication, the official announcement is scheduled to be made later on Thursday (31).

The new party expects the former minister to drop his presidential bid to run for a seat as a representative or federal senator – positions that Moro would have a better chance of winning given his recent campaign’s low ratings. Opinion polls about the race.According to the plateau.

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Also noteworthy is the data from Continuous National Household Sample Survey (Pnad)Released today. As reported today by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE), the unemployment rate fell to 11.2% in the February quarter, which is a variance of 0.4 percentage points from the previous quarter (11.6%) and maintenance compared to the previous quarter. January.

It’s the lowest rate for a February quarter since 2016. And with it, the country has 12 million unemployed people. Compared to the last quarter, the number of job seekers decreased 3.1%.

The data was better than expected. Refinitiv’s consensus estimate was for an unemployment rate of 11.4% in the quarter ending February.

In the assessment of Rodolfo Margato, an economist at XP, the figures showed that employment continues to recover in Brazil, but labor income continues to contract.

According to him, after an unexpected increase in January, average real incomes fell 0.2% in February, according to seasonally adjusted home accounts. In doing so, says Margato, it has reached about R$2,525 per month, 8.5% lower than levels seen before the health crisis erupted.

“Double-digit inflation largely explains the downward trend in real income, which should not be reversed in the short term,” he said. In turn, the volume of real income, which combines average income and the working population, increased by 0.2% in February, although it remained at its lowest level since the beginning of 2017 and about 7.5% below the level before the Corona virus. ‘, he finished.

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