Fears of higher interest rates in Brazil and the U.S. make it difficult to raise Ibovespa after the downturn

In line with the New York stock markets this Tuesday, 21 morning, Ibovespa is acting with volatility amid uncertainty regarding US monetary policy. Domestically, the possibility of a double-digit base rate by the end of 2024 continues to grow.

This Tuesday’s empty agenda indicators reinforce the moderation of the Bovespa index, a divergent signal from commodities and waiting for the analysis of Magda Sambriard’s nomination for the presidency of Petrobras.

“There are speeches from the Fed directors, there are minutes tomorrow (Wednesday), which are a bit of a rearview mirror,” notes Ana Luisa Gnatali, partner in charge of diversified income at Legend Investimentos.

Therefore, liquidity in key markets should be tight, Alvaro Bandeira, economic coordinator of Apimec Brasil, highlights in an opinion.

Oil fell near 0.80% amid fears of higher-than-expected US interest rates. On the other hand, iron ore rose 1.68% to US$125.49 a tonne on the Dalian Stock Exchange, while Vale’s shares rose 0.686 as of 11:20 am. Petrobras PN advanced 0.24% and ON gave 0.21%.

Investors remained cautious and awaited signs of possible US monetary policy from several Federal Reserve (Fed) officials’ speeches throughout the day.

Earlier, central bank director Christopher Waller ruled out further interest rate hikes in the country, saying there was a sign inflation was cooling. The president of the Atlanta Fed, Raphael Bostic, adopted a more cautious tone, pointing out that discrimination is needed when deciding to cut interest rates. Later today, more central bank officials will deliver speeches.

Investors continue to echo statements from members of the U.S. Federal Reserve that reinforced uncertainty with inflation in the United States. . “Earnings season was good and Nvidia’s results tomorrow will be good. Now, the market is again focusing on monetary policy,” he says.

Uncertainties in the base interest rate in Brazil are also in focus, as the possibility that the Selic rate will end the year in double digits increases. This Monday, the 20th, in Rio, the Focus Bulletin and analysts who participated in the meeting with the central bank’s directors went in this direction, considering the development of inflation expectations.

For Genial Investimentos, the current scenario does not support further downside in Celique, which is currently at 10.50%. “With the anchoring of inflation expectations, uncertainties surrounding the easing of interest rates in the US, the deterioration of financial risk and the increased risk of political interventions in COBOM, we assess that the central bank is in an unfavorable position for further cuts. In interest,” he notes in the report.

According to Genial, in the absence of drivers to lower expectations, BC will announce the end of the interest rate cut cycle, leaving the Selic at 10.50% per annum at the June meeting.

On Monday, the key indicator of B3 closed down 0.31% at 127,750.92 points.

At 11:20 am this Tuesday, it was up 0.06% at 127,830 points, varying by only 859 points between the low (127,412.78 points) and high (128,271.87 points).