Holidays, Angry Minutes, Fomc, Jobs in the US and Itaú & Bradesco Results: What to Watch This Week

SAO PAULO – B3 The Brazilian stock market will be short for the week due to a holiday that closes next Tuesday (2), but it will contain important indicators and events that will move the market.

On the domestic agenda, the minutes of the last meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee (COPOM) raised by Celtic 1.5 will be released at 7:00 am (Brasilia time), with the exception of Wednesday (3). Points percentage, 7.75% per annum.

Prodesco stresses that the document should focus on the aspects that led the group to accelerate the pace of growth, especially the discussion of current inflationary pressures and financial risks.

Investors will refer to the document for more details on the points of the Save Report Stupid (Mild), among them the central division of monetary policy between 2022 and 2033, which some analysts consider to be less stressful than expected on the tone of the BC on inflation and financial risks.

On Thursday (4), the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) released industrial production data for September. Itayu expects a 0.6% decline compared to the previous month. “Our distribution suggests negative numbers across the board. Despite high demand for industrial goods, industrial production has been on a downward trajectory since February (May is the only favorable month thereafter). We expect this demand to decline in the future, especially as higher interest rates could hurt credit growth.” The bank points out that.

No date has been set yet, and Fenabrave may be released for October. For external accounts, the trade balance for the month of October will be known on Monday (1) at 3:00 pm (Brasilia time). In the second (1), it is noteworthy that the traditional focus report will be released at 8:25 am, and may reflect the adjustment in analysts’ estimates that will evaluate Safra after the end of Brazil’s last monetary policy. On Monday, at 10 a.m., the market releases the manufacturing sector’s BMI index for October.

In the political context, with the possible vote on PEC 23 in the House of Representatives, the focus will be on discussions on a proposal for a constitutional amendment (PEC) on the forecasts and formalization of the Auxílio Brazil Plan.

As Bloomberg points out, the government’s difficulty in approving the amendment that would implement the new social program Auxílio Brasil has created fears in the market that it will abandon the PEC and take further negative action on public accounts. According to newspaper reports, the options include an extension of emergency assistance through an extraordinary loan or a disaster relief order.

Itaú emphasizes that following the discussions on the feasibility of reviving the general disaster situation will also be important as a tool to make fiscal rules more flexible in order to implement higher spending by 2022.

Also on the radar, according to reports, are some opportunities to mobilize truck drivers scheduled for November 1st.

Petrobras, revenue season and 5G auction

Senator Rodrigo Pacheco (DEM-MG) said he would meet with President Petropras (PETR3;PETR4) And will discuss fuel prices with governors next week. Equal funding and pricing policy linked to exchange rates will be discussed, he said.

President Jair Bolzano this week said the government was trying to find a way to change the law on inflation in a state-owned company, which has shaken the company’s operations. Criticizing the net price of fuel for the dollar, he said, “Petrobras should be the most profitable company ever.” BNDES President Gustavo Montezano said the debate over the privatization of Petropras was “very effective” and “healthy”, but for now nothing more. The bank, which coordinated several privatization processes when Jair Bolzano was president, said it had not been officially notified by the government to take any action in this regard.

Yet on corporate radar, the revenue season is busy even during the shortest week. After the holiday, Wednesday, Siolo (CIEL3), Ita Unibanko (ITUB4), CSN (CSNA3), Ultrabar (UGPA3), Sugar bread (PCAR3) And Petrorio (PRIO3), Among other things, will publish the results. The next day, on Thursday, Prodesco’s turn (BBDC4), Minerva (Beef3), Containing the sixth (5) Embraer numbers (EMBR3) Look Results calendar.

National Telecommunications Corporation (Anatel) Promotes 5G bidding, Which takes place between Thursday and Friday. According to the agency, the auction will move around R $ 50 billion, of which R $ 3 billion will go to treasury treasures. Fifteen bidders submitted documents to participate in the auction.

Fomc is a highlight on the international agenda

Internationally, the October ISM manufacturing index of the US economy will be released on Monday. But the decision by the Federal Open Market Committee (Fomc), the Federal Reserve Committee, at 3pm on Wednesday was a big highlight. The central bank is expected to announce its next steps and reduce the asset purchase plan, the first step in normalizing its policies to stimulate the economy. This decision will be followed by a speech by Jerome Powell, Chairman of the Monetary Commission.

The next day, the British Central Bank conducts its meeting. The possible signs of a cash crunch could be further confirmed in speeches by European Central Bank (ECB) officials this week.

The United States will release important data, including labor market data. On Wednesday, the October ATP will be released with a preview of the private employment data and the October payroll report, which will be released on Friday and has a Bloomberg unanimous estimate of 400,000 job creation.

On Friday, German industrial production and eurozone retail data (both September) will be released.

China will release industry and services PMIs over the weekend, with the potential to affect markets on Monday (1).

With the Prodesco highlight, markets will focus on the final reading of the BMI codes and look for many more signs.
Moderate performance of global economic activity at the beginning of the fourth quarter.

(Com Bloomberg)

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