Inflation and the micron lower the forecast for the US economy

The outlook for U.S. economic growth in the first quarter of 2022 is darkening amid the recent rise in Govt-19 cases. Consumers are facing rising inflation in the country and companies are overcoming supply barriers to the labor market and production.

Analysts advise hair The Wall Street Journal, Lowering their expectations for US first-quarter growth by more than one percent this month to an annual rate of 3% – up from 4.2% in the October survey.

The combination of high inflation, supply chain barriers and the rapidly spreading Ômicron variance has pushed economists to lower their growth forecasts for the current year to 3.3%. In the previous survey, the country was projected to have a gross domestic product (GDP) forecast of 3.6% by 2022.

Rotating inflation could force the central bank (Fed, US Central Bank) to raise interest rates sharply, risking a recession. On average, panelists expect annual consumer inflation to fall to 5% in June from 7% in December – significantly higher than the forecast of 3.4% in October.

Nearly two-thirds of those surveyed expect the central bank to raise rates at its March 15-16 policy meeting and continue to raise rates throughout the year. More than half of analysts expect three increases this year, with nearly a third expecting more than three. This is a dramatic change from the last poll, with only 5% of respondents expecting a rate increase in March and more than 40% not expecting any increase in 2022.

Search for The Wall Street Journal It was held from January 7 to 11, asking 69 researchers. Not all participants answered all the questions.