Threats of intimidation, turtle action and social cuts: Chavismo’s strategies for Sunday’s elections | Sandra Cohen’s blog

Chavismo is ready to use the entire state machine this Sunday (28) and face its biggest opposition challenge in 25 years. Nicolás Maduro must use methods familiar to Venezuelan voters to reduce Edmundo González Urrutia’s lead — estimated at 20 to 30 points, according to opinion polls — and prevent the opposition from celebrating a landslide victory.

Analysts, however, estimate that this time the regime’s traditional election tactics may not be enough to prevent the opposition from coming to power after what González defined as “the most unequal election campaign in the country’s history.”

Venezuela’s decisive day will also threaten voters on both sides of the conflict. On the opposition side, political scientist Benigno Alarcón predicted that voters should be prepared to spend a long and tiring day on the street and face sting operations from Chavista activists to delay voting or threats at election sessions.

“What can happen to disrupt the voting process in centers with a large number of voters and in centers where the opposition wins. Knowing how close the people are to the desired political change, it is difficult for me to abandon the lines because they are long or slow,” observes Andres Bello, director of the Center for Political and Government Studies of the Catholic University. .

In response, the regime will act to fill sessions in its strongholds with intimidation, forcing civil servants and those who benefit from government social grants such as food stamps to vote. In previous elections, these voters were required to photograph their ballot papers and show proof of continued benefits.

The election process was tense and turbulent from the beginning, with the arrest of opponents, the exclusion of Venezuelan voters abroad from voting, and the regime’s disregard for international observers and the Barbados Convention. Controlled by Chavismo, the National Electoral Council questioned the legitimacy of the process.

The winner of the primaries, María Corina Machado, barred her candidacy and was replaced by Corina Yoris. Edmondo González Urrutia, a 74-year-old retired diplomat, entered the campaign as a consensus candidate despite being unknown and politically inexperienced. He counts Maria Corina as a campaigner and keeps her leading in the polls.

Calls for a mass vote this Sunday have fueled opposition camp supporters amid fears of vote counting irregularities and restrictions created by the regime. The news is reflected in clear signs of Maduro and Chavismo’s nervousness despite their control over the institutions.

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