US and European futures rise as investors await payroll; Industry in Brazil and more highlights of today’s market

European markets and US futures indices are running higher on Friday morning (1) as investors assess the start of a new quarter, a sign of slack in the bond market and fresh peace talks between Russians and Ukrainians. Asia Pacific markets closed mixed as the Caixin/Market PMI showed Chinese manufacturing activity contracted in March.

Oil prices fluctuate ahead of the International Energy Agency (IEA) meeting to discuss another emergency oil reserve release along with mega planned release By the United States announced the day before.

Two- and 10-year Treasury yields reversed for the first time since 2019. For some investors, it’s a sign that the economy is heading into a potential recession, although the inverted yield curve doesn’t predict exactly when that will happen and shows the history that could take. over a year or more.

Talks between Russia and Ukraine are expected to continue on Friday. Meanwhile, Russian energy giant Gazprom said it was continuing to supply Europe with natural gas, Reuters reported.

This is despite the deadline set by the president on Friday Russian President Vladimir Putin In return for paying for Russian gas in rubles – a demand rejected by European governments that seem to have found an alternative solution.

Investors are also waiting for data from Payroll, the employment report, which notes the job creation and unemployment rate in March which, according to Bradesco’s estimation, “should show a hot labor market, and push for a timely adjustment of the Fed’s monetary policy.” The market consensus on Refinitiv is that 490,000 jobs have been created and the unemployment rate has fallen from 3.8% to 3.7%.

In Brazil, February industrial production and manufacturing PMI (10 hours) came out with market consensus at 49, indicating a contraction in activity. The Trade Balance will be released in the afternoon, with an expected surplus of $9.013 billion.

On the political side, the government could deploy an MP today with an increase in banks’ CSLL, currently at 20%, to offset Simples Refis. Bolsonaro also backtracked on a 33% cut in IPI to help the Manaus free trade zone.

Check out more highlights:

1. Global Scholarships

we

US index futures advanced this morning as investors assess a new trading quarter and a turbulent indicator of slack in the bond market.

Investors are also awaiting the official jobs report for March, which will be released by the Department of Labor at 9:30 AM ET.

A strong jobs report could give the Fed more confidence in maintaining its aggressive rate hike plan this year to stifle inflation without fearing the economy will slow down too much.

Watch the performance of futures markets:

• Dow Jones Futures (USA), +0.41%
• S&P 500 futures contract (US), +0.41%
• Nasdaq Future (US), +0.40%

Asia

Asian markets closed between losses and gains on the first trading day of the new quarter, echoing a special survey that showed Chinese manufacturing activity contracted in March.

The Caixin/Market Manufacturing PMI for March came in at 48.1, below the 50 level that separates growth from contraction. This compares to the previous month’s reading of 50.4. The index was also the lowest since February 2020.

The reading comes as China grapples with the most serious outbreak of Covid-19 since the start of the pandemic.

In China, Shanghai joins other major cities and expands its lockdown policy after record Covid cases.

• Shanghai SE (China) + 0.94%
• Nikkei (Japan), -0.56%
• Hang Seng Index (Hong Kong), +0.19%
• Kospi (South Korea), -0.65%

Europe

European markets are running slightly higher, with negotiations between Russia and Ukraine continuing to guide investor sentiment.

Peace talks between Russia and Ukraine have yielded little so far, with Kyiv and its Western allies remaining skeptical of Moscow’s intentions and the legitimacy of its commitment to partial military withdrawals in northern Ukraine.

Also pay attention to the battery indicators there. Eurozone inflation rose in March to 7.5% from 5.9% in February, topping analysts’ expectations. The data is in line with the first estimate, which is still provisional, released on Friday by Eurostat.

The Eurozone manufacturing PMI fell from 58.2 to 56.5 in March, the lowest in 14 months, but still above the 50 mark, which separates expansion from contraction.

• FTSE 100 (UK), +0.20%
• Dax (Germany), +0.40%
• CAC 40 (France), +0.23%
• FTSE MIB (Italy), +0.62%

goods

Oil prices fluctuate on Friday ahead of countries meeting to discuss the release of emergency oil reserves along with the massive release planned by the United States.

Yesterday, US Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm said that the US Department of Energy is ready to immediately implement the federal mandate that releases one million barrels of oil per day from US strategic reserves for a period of six months.

Yesterday’s session saw a drop in oil prices and the major contracts started lower, but turned into slight gains.

• West Texas Intermediate crude, +0.50%, at $100.79 a barrel
• Brent crude rose 0.64% to $105.38 a barrel
• Iron ore traded on the Dalian Stock Exchange rose 3.46% to 926.00 yuan, or 145.58 US dollars.

Bitcoin

• Bitcoin, -4.53% at $4,515.50 (from 24 hours ago)

2. Schedule

On Friday, ending the week, watch out for PMIs in Germany, the Eurozone, and the UK, as well as Eurozone inflation. In Brazil, there is IPC-S and industrial production.

In the US, payroll data was released, referring to job creation and the unemployment rate in March which, according to Bradesco’s estimation, “should emerge a hot labor market, putting pressure on a timely adjustment of the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy…”. The market consensus on Refinitiv is that 490,000 jobs have been created and the unemployment rate has fallen from 3.8% to 3.7%.

The day ends with Brazil’s trade balance.

Brazil

8:00 am: weekly IPC-S

9 a.m.: Industrial production for February, with the Refinitiv consensus up 0.3% mom but down 5.2% y/y

10 am: Manufacturing PMI for March

3pm: March Trade Balance

United States of America

9:30 a.m.: March payroll, expected to create 490,000 jobs, unemployment rate at 3.7%

11 am: Construction expenses in February

11 am: March Manufacturing PMI

3. Government Should Increase CSLL for Banks to Compensate Simples Refis

Government It studies the possibility of raising the rate of social contribution to net income (CSLL). of financial institutions to offset the impact of the overthrow of the presidential veto on the tax debt refinancing program for micro and small businesses.

It should be noted that Jair Bolsonaro decided to keep the IPI cut at 25% for another 30 days, after expecting yesterday that the government would announce an additional cut to 33%.

Doria resigns from the Socialist Party government and confirms his candidacy for the plateau

Governor of São Paulo, João Doria (PSDB), He retreated and announced that he would resign To run for the presidency.

With the resignation, the state’s deputy governor, Rodrigo Garcia, takes office and becomes a candidate for re-election in Palacio dos Bandeirantes in the October elections.

“Yes, yes! I will be a candidate for the presidency of the republic by the PSD,” said Doria.

The course introduces a new PL version of “Fake News” with emphasis on the election deadline

On Thursday (31), Representative Orlando Silva’s (PCdoB-SP) “Fake News” Act Rapporteur proposed that a portion of the changes take immediate effect from the penalty, particularly those affecting the electoral process. The platforms have representation in the country.

The rapporteur presented a new version of the opinion yesterday, after negotiations with the parties and the Bolsonaro government, and intends that the project be approved in April by the Chamber. After that, there will still be a new analysis by the Senate.

One of the major changes is the deadline for the new law to enter into force. The new proposal is that changes that require technical adaptation by companies will not be required until after one year. Other orders requiring “low technical effort” for companies will have 90 days. The remaining parts of the law, such as punishing candidates for abusing economic and political power on social media in elections, will have immediate validity.

4. Covid

And Brazil recorded, last Thursday (31), 290 deaths and 33,653 cases of Covid-19 virus within 24 hours, according to information from the Media Union, at 8 pm.

The 7-day moving average of deaths from Covid in Brazil is 213, down 34% compared to the 14-day level before that.

The seven-day moving average of new cases was 25,910, which is a 34% increase compared to the 14-day level before that.

It reached 16,0659971 people fully vaccinated against Covid in Brazil, equivalent to 74.79% of the population.

The number of people who received at least the first dose of vaccines was 1,75,751,296, representing 81.81% of the population.

The booster dose was administered to 77,418,071 people, or 36.04% of the population.

5. Corporate radar

Petrobras (PETR4;PETR3)

The state-owned company has reported the nominations of Cayo Ramalho and Gaspar Carrera Jr. For a full member and alternate member of the Financial Board represented by the preferred shareholders of the company.

safe shelter (PSSA3)

The board of directors of the insurance company approved the distribution of dividends and interest on equity (JCP) in the amount of R$ 684.1 million, equivalent to R$ 1,0580,1876,217 per share.

Full interest on equity will be paid on April 11, 2022. Dividend will be credited until November 30, 2022.