With the dollar declining and close to $5, is it worth investing abroad?

Beware of volatility

With the dollar’s rise and fall scenario on the radar, analysts are recommending that small investors double their interest in short-term bets in the foreign exchange market.

Last year, for example, the dollar peaked at R$5.80 in March, before hitting R$4.90 in June – a drop of 15.5%. But then it rose again, rising to R$5.74 in December, an increase of 17.1%.

In other words, the investor may gain from the volatility that the dollar tends to offer throughout this year, but he may also lose money.

Where do you invest?

Market professionals often repeat that investment recommendations always differ from person to person, because strategies depend on goals and Investor Profile Each one.

Specialists also point out that investing in dollars is different from buying dollars. There are many applications on the market that allow Brazilians to have a portion of the wallet associated with US currency, without necessarily having to own the banknotes or account with that currency.

When we talk about investing in dollars, we usually refer to international investment, in dollar-earning assets, such as stocks of foreign companies, global fixed income securities or international funds.
Rachel de Sa, chief economist at Rico

See below the scenarios identified by experts and guidelines for those who already have a dollar application or for those considering joining now.

The dollar as protectionFor those who have invested in dollar-linked assets because of a foreign currency expense, such as an international trip, the suggestion is to keep the order. After all, the purpose is not to win, but to avoid losses with exchange rate fluctuations.

The dollar as speculation: Betting on the dollar for quick wins is a risky move, and it’s a strategy that analysts surveyed do not recommend to the small investor. In addition, the decision to sell or not to sell will depend on when the person entered the application.

The dollar as a diversification: Those who have invested in dollar tracking investments with the aim of obtaining part of the capital in foreign currency and thus diversifying the portfolio, the recommendation is to continue with this business. Specialists note that the investor can take advantage of this moment to expand the segment of the portfolio intended for international investments.

who – which slid From the dollar preferred part of the lease in international assets, which can be increased. We see the risks for the dollar back to R$5.70 much more than it would be to drop to R$5.00.
Rodrigo scavioliAnd the President of funds and allocate XP

according to President of funds and allocate XPRodrigo scaviolithis scenario – a falling dollar, but with a new rise expected in the future – favors international investments that are protected from exchange rate fluctuations (called exchange hedging).

This is the case of international investment funds that use derivatives to protect the currency. In this way, the investor’s gains practically depend only on differences in the same asset, for example, on the performance BDRs or two ETFsWithout suffering from fluctuations of the dollar against the riyal.

Sgavioli gave an example of recommendations for an investor with a moderate profile – that is, neither conservative nor bold. In this profile, 17% of the portfolio should be allocated to international investments, with 3% to fixed income and 14% to variable income. And in the variable income segment, 71% are hedge positions.

And who’s out, is it worth getting in now?

The answers of this investor who does not have a dollar-linked investment will also depend on the goals they each have.

prognosisAs a short-term investment, the dollar close to 5.20 Brazilian Real is not a gateway to investing abroad yet, because there is a risk that the US currency will decline a little more, affected by factors such as higher interest rates. So the short-term earning potential is not strong at this point.

to diversifyFor those looking for investments in foreign exchange funds, BDRs Or other companies that track US currency to start building an international stake in the long-term portfolio Delivery time Looking at a horizon of at least three years, the assessment is that it is worth taking advantage of this moment.

We say that the time is not right to start building the share of international investments in the portfolio and call for this to be done gradually. But if a person already has a separate amount of money to do that allocation, with clear long-term goals, I think it’s worth making that step now.
Rachel de Sa, Rico Investments

look here The best ways to invest in investments that follow the dollar.

Check also Percentage of portfolio that can be invested in international assets, according to professionals consulted before UOL.