World War III will happen, but it will not be what everyone thinks; understand

After three months of conflict between Russia And Ukraine, talk of a possible third world war began to be more present. This week, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov made the following statement when asked by a journalist on Russian state television about the escalation of the conflict: “The risks [de uma Terceira Guerra] very important. I don’t want to artificially inflate this. “The danger is grave and real,” he said. “There are real chances that the war will turn into something bigger,” he added. After his statement, tensions escalated and the West met to discuss sending more weapons to Ukraine Russian President Vladimir Putin She increased her threats and informed that “if someone intends to interfere from the outside in the current events, which creates unacceptable threats of a strategic nature for us, he should know that our response will wither away.”

For Igor Macedo, Ph.D. in International Relations, thinking about a third world war is not something that has a simple answer. But it points to two points that need analysis. The first is that conflict, as we saw in World War II, will only happen if there is “direct intervention” from North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). For the expert, this probability is slim, because the countries of the Alliance are well armed and Russia will lose a direct confrontation with them. Another aspect to consider is the conquest of Moldova. A general from the forces of the Russian Central Military District, Rustam Minkayev, said that Putin has an interest in controlling TransnistriaIt is a breakaway region of the country. The Kremlin did not confirm the information that would make it clear that the Russian autocrat has much greater ambitions than the ambitions of liberating the Donbass region. The invasion of Moldova will indicate that it is not just a conflict in Ukraine. he is [Putin] He will go to other countries. When we look at it from this angle, the possibility of a war involving other countries is real,” Macedo explains.

Associate Professor at the University of São Paulo’s Institute of International Relations (USP), Kai Inoue, is of the same opinion. He says he does not believe in the outbreak of World War III – at least not in the traditional sense. “The risk of something unpredictable is very high, simply because wars, like the conflict in Ukraine, are situations of extreme stress and tension,” he says. We will not witness a third world war. But we risk a bigger conflict, even if it does not become something global,” he continues. Macedo also explains that a situation like World War II “is very difficult.” [de acontecer]because Russia is isolated, but it can bring other countries into the confrontation”, as long as it is not a member of NATO.

While World War III is temporarily ruled out in the eyes of experts, who doubt Putin’s ability to sustain a long-running conflict as his reserves start to run out, they say they are certain to use nuclear weapons. “It will be used, but it will not be the first option,” Macedo says, adding that it will “include all the equipment and threats that countries have at their disposal.” For Kai Ino, the war will be hybrid, that is, “Not only will conventional and nuclear weapons be used. Also, cyber and digital attacks will occur.” The doctor in international relations concludes by saying that atomic war is complex. “If you use one and don’t completely destroy the enemy, you will be destroyed.”